Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 1105.246885 1258.402422 1430.433635 1639.008957 1886.413551 2172.190296 2529.706807
2025-06-08 870.816865 1069.117049 1313.981966 1642.802575 2079.328514 2648.387806 3462.314448
2025-06-15 757.565479 976.802491 1265.002363 1679.974171 2276.485875 3126.255201 4473.128388
2025-06-22 649.629522 867.800645 1168.006932 1623.385905 2319.101081 3381.942860 5213.661461
2025-06-29 569.981388 783.679531 1088.987835 1572.750289 2351.290910 3615.570873 5964.937706
2025-07-06 504.625004 710.607427 1014.273851 1513.560299 2353.951772 3794.029713 6658.530090
2025-07-13 478.643159 691.617645 1016.475037 1572.808845 2557.471614 4351.657210 8217.328324
2025-07-20 448.305929 662.080087 997.775236 1593.288168 2694.912426 4815.987034 9735.596857
2025-07-27 421.345195 634.695535 978.723959 1609.199847 2824.806088 5291.842663 11442.682175
2025-08-03 396.652848 608.320178 957.990317 1618.337933 2941.847184 5766.014852 13322.651176
2025-08-10 381.881645 596.710987 960.705595 1670.308959 3152.962282 6495.048537 16175.862160
2025-08-17 367.241685 583.804745 959.453394 1713.934633 3353.978175 7252.558958 19474.538179
2025-08-24 349.643337 564.780261 946.215176 1734.143988 3512.853163 7965.264852 23072.375824
2025-08-31 331.319213 542.998774 925.874085 1737.510934 3635.477938 8625.222627 26914.152116
2025-09-07 319.241536 531.324952 923.194346 1777.388593 3853.225248 9616.237329 32689.962489
2025-09-14 296.754406 498.754005 877.099903 1716.740273 3808.900268 9830.082973 35425.175510
2025-09-21 277.084246 470.022503 836.087193 1662.502578 3771.913792 10059.487512 38428.657262
2025-09-28 258.189175 441.492041 793.191440 1599.137543 3700.378748 10162.275065 40939.988181
2025-10-05 253.545680 439.782513 804.339280 1662.565279 3988.164318 11565.071916 51564.380546
2025-10-12 245.185677 430.226173 798.391691 1684.498149 4163.909736 12646.445510 61647.511103
2025-10-19 236.960330 420.335867 790.842642 1701.542327 4329.571373 13760.404109 73422.538547
2025-10-26 228.678435 409.755361 780.894898 1711.332043 4475.955269 14864.054918 86796.196365
2025-11-02 224.573140 407.313459 788.401632 1767.026010 4781.440163 16780.824735 110226.385971